Will Ottawa’s redrawn electoral boundaries impact results on election day?

As Ottawa residents prepare to vote, newly redrawn federal riding boundaries have sparked confusion among voters, with many unaware of the changes or unsure what they mean. But even as electoral maps shift, local residents say their concerns remain steady: housing, healthcare and leadership. 

On the Bells Corners Rocks Facebook page, many residents said they were surprised to be voting in a different riding when they headed to the advanced polls. Previously part of the Nepean riding, one user commented, “I was looking forward to marking Mark Carney on my ballot.” Another person expressed concern over representation, stating: ”As Bells Corners founded in 1851 is one of the oldest parts of Nepean founded in 1792, it must be in Nepean and not included with the much younger Kanata founded in 1950.”

Whichever riding they are voting in, it most likely won’t impact the outcome. Polling projections on 338 Canada show incumbent Sudds winning with 53 per cent of the vote. Her Conservative counterpart Craig Chung is projected in second at 37 per cent. In Nepean, Liberal party leader and local candidate Mark Carney is showing a comfortable lead with 58 per cent. Conservative candidate Barbara Bal is trending down in projections to 33 per cent. 

The newly drawn boundaries could, however, slightly impact results. It could benefit Sudds as Bells Corners typically votes Liberal. Heron Park, which is now part of Ottawa Centre instead of Ottawa South, typically votes NDP. That could help Joel Harden, the former NDP MPP for the area, who’s going up against Liberal incumbent Yasir Naqvi. 

Orléans will see some of the biggest changes with 13,000 residents moving electoral districts. Blackburn Hamlet, Cardinal Village and Carlsbad Springs neighbourhoods have been redistributed elsewhere. Local Liberal incumbent MP Marie-France Lalonde objected to the changes, but was unsuccessful with her plea. 

In an email, she expressed that while those constituents would be well served in other ridings, ”it does not remove the fact that they identify as members of the community of Orléans. Unfortunately, the commission’s decision is minimizing the preservation of the identity of these neighbourhoods that truly shape the Orléans electoral district.”

Redistribution of ridings is done every decade to account for population changes. Orléans was trimmed because, between 2011 and 2021, its population soared from 119,247 to 139,267 — 19.49 per cent above the 116,590 average for Ontario ridings. 

How do Ottawa residents feel about the electoral changes?

The Ottawa Lookout hit the streets of the newly drawn ridings to see what voters thought of the changes.  Darlene Love, who has lived in the Capital for over 30 years, said she was unaware, but said she’d be checking the map online to see who she could vote for. 

“It should be more promoted, and there should be more signage out as to where you can vote, and what riding you're in,” she said. In past elections, Love noticed a lack of clear direction. “There wasn’t enough signage… people walked by and didn’t vote. So, I’d like to see more signage so there’s no excuse not to vote.”

Kanata riding resident Douglas Wilson said his vote is shaped more by leadership than riding lines. He emphasized that while riding changes may affect some, federal issues remain the top priority. 

“Federal elections are more important for national issues,” Wilson explained. “Municipal or provincial elections would have more impact on local issues.” Asked whether redistricting might influence how others vote, he was skeptical. “I imagine it’s possible,” he said, “but I don’t see how the federal programs are pretty well spread out.”

One voter who recently moved to Bells Corners echoed that sentiment. A federal government employee who asked not to be named said she was surprised to find her riding had changed, but didn’t think it would impact her vote. 

“It feels odd that they changed it,” she said. “It was never explained. I just looked at the map and went, ’oh, it’s different.’” She noted both her old and new ridings are Liberal-held, so the party dynamics remain the same for now. “I’m not sure if it’s going to really affect all that much. It’ll be determined if it’s changed or flipped to a different party.”

For her, the top issues are clear. “I really hope housing and healthcare is top of mind for sure,” she said. “We’re going into a period of fiscal restraint, no matter the choice, so we’ll see.”

Robert Blutarsky, who was walking along Mooney’s Bay beach and moved to Ottawa a year-and-a-half ago, said riding changes won’t impact his vote.  

As riding lines and political winds shift, one thing is clear from conversations with voters: while some boundaries have changed and it may be confusing for some, it doesn’t seem to be impacting how people vote. 

As Wilson put it: “It’s not really about where you vote. It’s about who you believe in.”

How ridings have changed

1 - Kanata-Carleton is now Renamed Kanata. 

• The community of Bells Corners has been added from the Nepean riding. ​Rural areas, including Fitzroy Harbour, Dunrobin, Kinburn, and Constance Bay, have been transferred to the Carleton riding. 

2 - Carleton

• This community faced rapid growth in a decade, soaring from a population of 89,522 to 131,375. 

• Gained rural communities such as Fitzroy Harbour, Dunrobin, Kinburn, and Constance Bay from the former Kanata—Carleton riding. 

• Acquired areas south of Bells Corners, west of Highway 416, and south of Barnsdale Road from the Nepean riding. ​

• Transferred the Findlay Creek area to the Ottawa South riding. ​

3 - Nepean

• This riding also saw a large population growth going from 104,775 in 2011 to 132,769 in 2021. The Barrhaven part of the community alone has about 100,000 residents. 

• The community of Bells Corners has been moved to the Kanata riding. 

4 - Ottawa South

• Gained the Findlay Creek neighbourhood from the Carleton riding. ​

• Areas between the Rideau River and Bank Street, including Riverside Park, Billings Bridge, and Heron Park, have been moved to the Ottawa Centre riding. 

5 - Ottawa Centre

• Added Riverside Park, Billings Bridge, and Heron Park from the Ottawa South riding. ​

6 - Ottawa-West Nepean 

• The Shillington Avenue area and many homes around the north end of Broadview Area have been moved to Ottawa-West Nepean from Ottawa Centre.

• A small area south of the CN rail tracks on Prince of Wales Drive is switching to Nepean. 

7 - Ottawa Vanier is now Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester

• Gained the Blackburn Hamlet neighbourhood from the Orléans riding. ​

8 - Orléans

• Transferred the Blackburn Hamlet neighbourhood to the Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester riding. ​

• Some parts have also been moved to the ridings of Carleton and Prescott-Russell-Cumberland.

• The southern boundary was adjusted closer to the Ottawa River.

As always, check your election card you received in the mail, or visit Elections Canada, to find your polling location.