The next Prime Minister will most likely represent an Ottawa riding

It’s big news for Nepean: Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced he’s running in Nepean during the federal election.

• “Ottawa is where @MarkJCarney raised his family, devoted his career to public service, and always gave back to his community. We're thrilled to announce that our Leader, Mark Carney, will be our candidate for Nepean in the next election. Together we will build an even stronger Canada,” the Liberal party announced on social media. 

A competitive race: The news is a big blow for the local Conservatives who were hoping to win the riding back for the first time since 2015. Previously, Nepean was represented by current Carleton MP and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, until the riding's boundaries changed. 

Former candidate axed: In 2015 Liberal MP Chandra Arya was elected, but he found out earlier this week that the party removed him as the candidate. No reason was given for Arya’s dismissal, but in a letter Andrew Bevan, Designate of National Campaign Co-Chair, said it was made after a “thorough review” of Arya's “eligibility to serve as a Candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada in the riding of Nepean.”

• “After careful consideration, based on a review of new information by the Chair of the Green Light Committee, the National Campaign Co-Chair is recommending the revocation of your status as a Candidate. Unfortunately, based on that recommendation, your status as a Candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada has been revoked,” the letter read. 

Arya also ran “to be the next Prime Minister of Canada” but was also disqualified from the Liberal Party leadership race. Again, no reason was given, however many have questioned his ties to India. 

The main competitor: The Conservatives are running Barbara Bal as their candidate, and she’s got the running start having campaigned in the riding for the last year. According to her website, Bal “has served as a reserve member of the Royal Canadian Artillery (RCA) for a decade and then as a public safety professional for over 25 years.” 

• Bal has lived in Ottawa since 2001 and has “served on the executive of her local Community Association for nine years and volunteered with many other community organizations and initiatives, including the Nepean Minor Hockey Association, the Nepean Wildcats and le Conseil d’école Maurice-Lapointe.” 

Changing tides: Up until this point it was widely speculated that Bal could win. Arya was seen as an easy candidate to run against. But the once very conservative suburban riding of Nepean has been turning red. In the recent provincial election, Liberal candidate Tyler Watt took it from the PCs for the first time since 1995 — and he did so by about 5,000 votes. 

By the numbers: In the latest 2021 federal election, Arya won with 29,620 votes, totalling 45.1 per cent of all ballots cast. Then Conservative candidate Matt Triemstra came in second place with 22,184 votes, with 33.7 per cent. The NDP have never historically done well in Nepean, but Sean Devine (who is now the city councillor for Knoxdale-Merivale) came in third with 10,786 votes, with 16.4 per cent. In 2019 the three main political party’s results were almost the same. 

Who is Mark Carney?

The current Prime Minister — who’s been in his role for just days — was born in the Northwest Territories, but was raised in Edmonton, Alberta. He served as the Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, and as Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. 

There was lots of speculation a few years ago that Carney might run for MP in Ottawa Centre, but then Liberal MP Yasir Naqvi took that role. When calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation grew louder, Carney’s name started to swirl again. But where he ran remained a mystery with some pointing to Ottawa South as an option. The current Liberal MP and Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness David McGuinty is seeking re-election there. 

Political beginnings: In January of this year, Carney confirmed the speculation that he’d be running, likely in Edmonton where he grew up, and where his father was once a Liberal Party candidate. 

Carney went on to win the leadership by a landslide with over 85.9 per cent of the vote. His best result in all of Canada was in the riding of Ottawa Centre. Carney’s margin to victory was so high, that he won all 343 electoral ridings and had even better results than when Trudeau became leader. 

Carney’s biggest challenge: He doesn’t know Nepean that well. Since Carney returned to Ottawa in 2020, he’s been living in Rockcliffe Park, very far from his hopeful constituents, and a very different demographic. 

Speaking outside of Rideau Hall on Sunday, Carney said he had no involvement with Arya’s dismissal and said he’d spent time in Nepean before. 

• “From my perspective I’ve been a resident in the Ottawa area for almost 20 years with the exception of when I was a resident in London when I was Governor of the Bank of England. I know Nepean well. I was best man to Peter Chiarelli who grew up in Nepean,” said Carney. “From Barrhaven to Bells Corners and in between it’s an area I know well. And in many respects it is representative of many of the aspects of this county. The median income is around $50,000 to $55,000, a little less than the national average (and) it's very diverse.”

Local representation: No matter who becomes Prime Minister, it’s likely it will be a candidate from Ottawa with both Carney and Poilievre running in Canada’s Capital. That will be a history-making event for the city. The one and only time a Canadian Prime Minister was from an Ottawa riding was Sir John A. MacDonald, who was the MP for Carleton between 1882 and 1887.