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  • Ontario Liberals are spending a lot of time in Ottawa. Here is why

Ontario Liberals are spending a lot of time in Ottawa. Here is why

The party is hoping to retain its current seats and pick up new ones

Editor’s note: Projections calculated by 338 Canada (which are mentioned in this article) use a mostly proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. They aren’t a poll, but projections based on polls. They take into account electoral history and other data. 

One week to go: Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie was in Ottawa again on Wednesday for her second election campaign stop in the Capital. The party which doesn’t even have official status is hoping it could pick up more seats here — and they do stand a chance. 

But first they need to retain the seat of Kanata-Carleton where MPP Karen McCrimmon won that riding in a 2023 by-election by about 800 votes. And this time it’s looking to be close again. Projections on 338 Canada show the PCs having a 94 per cent chance of winning the riding. It projects McCrimmon coming in second with 33 per cent and PC candidate Scott Phelan coming in first with 42 per cent. That doesn’t mean it will be accurate. Similar polling was projected in 2023 but turned out to be wrong. 

Kanata-Carleton: On Wednesday McCcrimmon toured the Kanata Tech Business Park with Crombie. Earlier in the day the Ontario Liberal leader was in the PC stronghold of Clarence-Rockland where she blamed Premier and PC leader Doug Ford for hiding out during the election. 

  • “Where has he been? He called an early, unnecessary election at the cost of $189 million and he’s been absent for 50 per cent of it,” said Crombie. “Show your face and be accountable for your record.”

On Wednesday Ford did not have any press conferences, the ninth straight day he went without speaking with journalists. The Ontario NDP leader was also off the campaign trail, instead campaigning in her riding of Toronto Davenport. Many pollsters have said that’s not a good sign of confidence that she will win her own seat. Both Ford and Stiles have only campaigned in Ottawa once this election.  

Nepean: While just a few years ago people would have laughed at the thought of Liberals winning the riding of Nepean, this time they stand a chance. Registered nurse Tyler Watt is giving it a second go after coming in second place in 2022. He did so with about 2,000 fewer votes — incumbent Lisa MacLeod’s smallest margin of victory in over a decade and a half. 

A recent Mainstreet Research poll had the PCs in the lead. Projections by 338 Canada suggest PC candidate Alex Lewis has the greatest chance with winning with 44 per cent of the vote. Projections show Watt in second place with 35 per cent. 

But that doesn’t always take into account the number of new residents coming into the area. Watt told the Lookout he’s feeling confident. 

  • “We are continuing the momentum and movement from last time. We came so close and that's why I knew I had to do it again. I think that the energy, the excitement, the need for change is there and people are more familiar with my story and what I want to do for this community,” said Watt. 

Crombie also made a campaign stop at Watt’s campaign office Wednesday. 

Ottawa-West Nepean: In the past three elections this riding has been represented by all three main political parties. Former Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson held it for many years with the Liberals before Bob Chiarelli took it over in a 2010 by-election. Chiarelli kept that red momentum going until 2018 When Doug Ford swept provincial power from the Liberals and it went to the PC Jeremy Roberts. But he only won it by about 100 votes with NDP candidate Chandra Pasma coming in second place. So when 2022 rolled around, she won it by a more comfortable margin of about 1,000 votes. 

It’s unlikely the Liberals can win this riding again, but Pasma could have a bit of a fight on her hands. Polling on 338 Canada is showing PC candidate Husein Abu-Rayash with 37 per cent of the projected vote. Pasma is showing a second-place finish with 33 per cent. Brett Szmul from the Liberals is projected at 25 per cent. 

Chandra Pasma is the NDP incumbent in Ottawa-West Nepean. Photo by Charlie Senack.

Ottawa Centre: NDP candidate and former Somerset Coun. Catherine McKenney is likely to keep the urban Ottawa riding orange after incumbent NDP MPP Joel Harden decided to leave Queen’s Park for Parliament Hill. That election will come in the spring or fall. 

McKenney has a comfortable projected lead at 47 per cent, according to 338 Canada. Liberal candidate Thomas Simpson is in second place at 25 per cent. The PCs, who have never won this riding, are projected at 20 per cent. Before 2018, this riding was represented by Liberal MPP Yasir Naqvi, who now serves the area as MP. 

Liberal strongholds: No change is expected in Ottawa South where incumbent John Fraser is showing a healthy projected lead at 48 per cent. While the NDP has shown increasing results here, the PCs are projected to come in second place with 28 per cent. 

In Orléans, incumbent Stephen Blais is projected to get 47 per cent of the vote, says 338 Canada. The PCs are trailing behind by 10 points with the NDP at only 10 per cent. 

In neighbouring Ottawa-Vanier, incumbent Lucille Collard has a projection of 44 per cent. The PCs are only at 26 per cent and the NDP at 18 per cent.

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